2016 U.S. Presidential election

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jesuithitsquad
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Jul 1 2016 18:21
Steven. wrote:
jesuithitsquad wrote:
Nate Silver's 538 released their 1st General Election model today. They give an 80% probability to a Clinton victory.

That was similar to the probability given for a Remain victory in the UK referendum. Up until the last week before the referendum I was pretty confident of a Remain win.

Don't get me wrong, I think Hilary will win, but after that result I wouldn't be too sure of anything

But as i understand it--and it's only a peripheral knowledge at best-- UK polling has had a really terrible past couple of years. Election modeling of the 538 sort fundamentally rely on accurate polling data. Now, given they use an average of most recent polls it usually will lessen the impact of out liers, and of skewed polls. When all the polls are unreliable then the whole thing falls on it's face.

All that said, I share your hesitation....and even more so after brexit.

petey
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Jul 7 2016 11:39

curious to me: trump has been saying that saddam was good at killing terrorists, which explicitly contradicts the long and dearly held Republican narrative that saddam and al-qaeda were working together.

petey
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Jul 8 2016 14:51

?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/08/jill-stein-bernie-sanders-green-party

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Jul 8 2016 15:18

That's been going around for a bit, not sure what makes it more "newsy" today. It's a brilliant move on Stein's part, because even if he doesn't take it it does a lot to endear Sanders supporters to her.

I honestly think it'd be a lot better for Sanders to do that vs endorsing Hillary if he wants to avoid incorporation into the Democratic machine, but I think he's getting ready to endorse her.

This is the year of surprises though.

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Jul 9 2016 02:37

Sanders would never consider a run as a Green I think. He's too tied into the establishment as a US Senator. He's worked with the Dems for years. He's not ready to completely blow up his relationship with the Democratic Party that way.

For Stein of course the task is to try to win away as large a bloc of the Sanders voters as possible. Polls have suggested that as many as 14 percent of Sanders voters might vote for her versus 9 percent who are thinking of voting for Trump. Polls have indicated 1/4 of his voters (at least) will not vote for Clinton, they say. There is a certain percentage of Sanders voters who say they will vote for the Libertarian.

Currently Stein, who does not have high name recognition, is running around 4 to 5 percent in national polls. It's hard to say if that will hold up, go up or down, between now and November.

The Greens are also apparently in the process of declaring themselves an eco-socialist party, tho we'll have to wait for their convention to see if that happens.

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Jul 26 2016 08:19

So as a bit of a roundup, as suspected Sanders has endorsed Hillary (albeit looking very sad), getting booed by his supporters. Hillary is the confirmed Democratic candidate, and Trump is the confirmed Republican.

Interesting article by Michael Moore saying that Trump will win: http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

It's pretty compelling, although I think he underestimates the fact that some Republicans will not vote for him (see former mayor Bloomberg endorsing Clinton, for example).

petey
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Jul 26 2016 14:40
Steven. wrote:
It's pretty compelling, although I think he underestimates the fact that some Republicans will not vote for him (see former mayor Bloomberg endorsing Clinton, for example).

your point is right, the neocon establishment, mostly republicans, will vote clinton as she's an interventionist. big names have been quitting the party publicly. hard conservatives and tea party types will vote for the constitution party or some such, of which there are a few, and libertarians will vote libertarian: http://www.politics1.com/p2016.htm.

you've got two "new york liberals" running, which is interesting, or something, in light of the last 30 (or 50) years of concerted and well funded rightwing efforts.

bloomberg himself isn't the best example though. he was a lifelong democrat before he decided to run for mayor, and he ran republican because there would be little/no opposition to his candidacy on that line. then he left the GOP in the middle of his second term and for the last 6 years as mayor was independent.

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Aug 6 2016 20:09

Latest polls have Clinton 9 to 14 points ahead of Trump. This is similar to the margin of victory of Obama in 2008. Trump has slid very far & is still falling. This is heading into landslide territory.

Another poll says that among people under 30 Stein has more support than Trump (16 percent versus 9 percent).

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Aug 7 2016 01:06
syndicalistcat wrote:
Latest polls have Clinton 9 to 14 points ahead of Trump. This is similar to the margin of victory of Obama in 2008. Trump has slid very far & is still falling. This is heading into landslide territory.

Another poll says that among people under 30 Stein has more support than Trump (16 percent versus 9 percent).

That's interesting data re: <30 year olds. It does look like it's moving towards a landslide. Pundits are speculating that North Carolina, Arizona and maybe even Georia could flip this cycle if the Clinton camp decides to spend money there.

3 of the last 4 directors of the CIA have come out openly opposing Trump with one DCI stating that when he fell for Putin's flattery, Trump effectively became a Russian asset ( not in the conspiracy theory way-- which is gaining more and more mainstream coverage,btw).

That said, if history is any indication the race will eventually tighten before November. Trump has had arguably the worst post-convention 2 weeks in living memory, and it's hard to imagine things getting much worse for him, given that he has around a 25-30% absolute floor and he's currently polling around 35-39%. However, while it is a small data set, in the time these things have been tracked the candidate leading following each campaign's post-convention bounce has won in November.

One final note, Trump has now 'pivoted' his Rigged System argument to the General Election. If the election ends up being close this argument has the potential for calamity. I've mentioned Roger Stone in previous posts. This week he speculated that Trump needs to ramp up the rhetoric about it:

Quote:
“I think we have widespread voter fraud, but the first thing that Trump needs to do is begin talking about it constantly,” Stone said. “He needs to say for example, today would be a perfect example: ‘I am leading in Florida. The polls all show it. If I lose Florida, we will know that there’s voter fraud. If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government.’”

http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/07/29/roger-stone-milo-show-trump-can-fight-voter-fraud/

petey
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Aug 7 2016 01:26

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/us/politics/green-party-jill-stein-houston.html

Quote:
You’re at 6 percent in a new poll,” her press director, Meleiza Figueroa, repeated. “Sixteen percent with voters under 30.”
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Aug 9 2016 03:35

Elsewhere in the forums, we've talked about antisemitism on the left, specifically around the Green Party with Cynthia McKinney. Well, it looks like Jill Stein's VP running mate, Ajamu Baraka is into false-flag conspiracy theories and associates with some Holocaust deniers such as Kevin Barrett.

petey
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Aug 9 2016 13:41

i don't know anything about those 2 guys but i found this

https://m.reddit.com/r/Ask_Politics/comments/4wknq9/has_ajamu_baraka_green_vp_ever_recanted_from/

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Aug 9 2016 15:03

Apparently the rumors that Stein is anti vax are false (er, sorta).
http://www.snopes.com/is-green-party-candidate-jill-stein-anti-vaccine/

Spikymike
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Aug 10 2016 17:45

I see that Bernie friendly Michael Albert (leading light in IOPS and promoter of Parecon - criticised elsewhere on this site) is publicly arguing for a vote for Hilary Clinton as 'the lesser evil' against Trump in most cases and otherwise for the Green candidate in states where Clinton looks like an obvious winner anyway but then he's no anarchist or libertarian communist so perhaps not surprising.

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Aug 10 2016 21:06

Yeah they are calling that the safe state strategy.

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Aug 10 2016 21:52

A lot of people did a similar thing with Nader in 2000.

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Aug 11 2016 00:32

Michael Albert is also a friend of Chomsky who is arguing the same lesser evil voting for Clinton in "safe states." Albert generally dissociates his ideas about libertarian socialism as goal from strategy, where he seems to hold that almost anything can be a viable strategy. Remember his fervent support for Chavez. Achieving workers & community councils via the state...same line as we find in Harnecker's "21st Century Socialism" essay.

Poll average since end of Republican convention has risen 9 percentage points for Clinton, who is now 7.8 points ahead in the Real Clear Politics polling average. Moreover, direction of the polls now indicate Clinton has a safe lead in states with 256 electoral votes & is ahead by 6.6 points in Michigan, which has another 16 electoral votes. That would give her 272 electoral votes. 270 is needed to win. So as of now she's clearly got enough advantage to trounce Trump. Most recent national polls put Clinton anywhere from 9 to 15 points ahead of Trump.

Current polling average for Stein is 3.8 percent.

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Aug 11 2016 19:14

More on the Green Party VP pick
https://radicalarchives.org/2016/08/10/ajamu-baraka-holocaust-denial/

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Aug 11 2016 22:02

Baraka also says that Assad regime "is not illegitimate", which means he supports the Baath regime against the Syrian opposition. I don't know enough about him to know if he's anti-semitic himself tho in some black nationalist circles there is a history of anti-semitism (Farrakhan for example). Green Party seems to attract a lot of kooks, conspiracy theorists and what-not.

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Aug 11 2016 22:21

Ajamu repudiates holocaust denial in his reply, claiming he didn't know Barrett's views:

http://gawker.com/stein-campaign-says-running-mate-didn-t-realize-he-was-1785157203?utm_campaign=socialflow_gawker_facebook&utm_source=gawker_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

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Aug 11 2016 22:48

Yeah, I saw that. Seems suspect. Everytime I've appeared on radio or had something of mine published somewhere, I like to know who is behind that stuff. I think more likely is that he didn't see a problem with Barrett's views. A certain segment of the left is somewhat tolerant of antisemitism, whether disguised or overt. Personally, I find this as dangerous as any other form of reactionary politics that can seep in, even though it isn't necessarily taken as seriously as others.

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Aug 11 2016 23:07

Hear, hear.

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Aug 12 2016 02:31

I have no idea. It's hard to know if you don't know him, though his comments on the Assad regime already suggest a willingness to accept authoritarian regimes.

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Aug 12 2016 03:35

It's probably worth noting here that Trump's dog-whistle is more like an air horn at this point with his new line of attack that 'Barack Hussein Obama founded ISIS.' Oh yeah, that and also the statement that 2nd Amendment People could stop Hilary.

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Aug 12 2016 17:23
Juan Conatz wrote:
Yeah, I saw that. Seems suspect. Everytime I've appeared on radio or had something of mine published somewhere, I like to know who is behind that stuff. I think more likely is that he didn't see a problem with Barrett's views. A certain segment of the left is somewhat tolerant of antisemitism, whether disguised or overt. Personally, I find this as dangerous as any other form of reactionary politics that can seep in, even though it isn't necessarily taken as seriously as others.

I almost totally agree that this is probably the case, though I'd be lying if I didn't say I could suspect he isn't that media literate to actually track where his stuff is appearing. But if he got it cleared he knew.

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Aug 12 2016 17:59
jesuithitsquad wrote:
It's probably worth noting here that Trump's dog-whistle is more like an air horn at this point with his new line of attack that 'Barack Hussein Obama founded ISIS.'

Its not a new attack line. He's been saying that since he began campaigning last year. Medias just trying to finish him off so he cant inch over the finish line in the fall.

On this particular point hes completely correct (though I'm sure his reasoning, whatever it is, to get to this conclusion is wrong). Al-Qaeda in Iraq was a defeated underground armed struggle group in Western Iraq in 2011. Today it controls territory the size of the UK and has international reach for guerrilla attacks.

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Aug 12 2016 18:22
teh wrote:
jesuithitsquad wrote:
It's probably worth noting here that Trump's dog-whistle is more like an air horn at this point with his new line of attack that 'Barack Hussein Obama founded ISIS.'

Its not a new attack line. He's been saying that since he began campaigning last year. Medias just trying to finish him off so he cant inch over the finish line in the fall.

On this particular point hes completely correct (though I'm sure his reasoning, whatever it is, to get to this conclusion is wrong). Al-Qaeda in Iraq was a defeated underground armed struggle group in Western Iraq in 2011. Today it controls territory the size of the UK and has international reach for guerrilla attacks.

Al Qaeda and ISIS are not the same and have been in open conflict (for example in Syria)

teh
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Aug 12 2016 19:22
jef costello wrote:
teh wrote:
jesuithitsquad wrote:
It's probably worth noting here that Trump's dog-whistle is more like an air horn at this point with his new line of attack that 'Barack Hussein Obama founded ISIS.'

Its not a new attack line. He's been saying that since he began campaigning last year. Medias just trying to finish him off so he cant inch over the finish line in the fall.

On this particular point hes completely correct (though I'm sure his reasoning, whatever it is, to get to this conclusion is wrong). Al-Qaeda in Iraq was a defeated underground armed struggle group in Western Iraq in 2011. Today it controls territory the size of the UK and has international reach for guerrilla attacks.

Al Qaeda and ISIS are not the same and have been in open conflict (for example in Syria)

I said Al Qaeda in Iraq which is the same group (or was) as so-called "ISIS." Al-Qaeda in Iraq created the Syrian branch after NATO opened its borders & gave Gulf/NATO arms to let it conquer North Syria, but they split in 2013-14 partially out of the Iraqs branch not wanting to follow Al-Qaeda Central's leadership and partially of their disgust at working for their enemies.

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Aug 12 2016 21:26

so i was just commenting in a Facebook thread about the nuttiness of the U.S. left when Ajamu Baraka chimes in to say he's being smeared by liberals as a black supremacist and holocaust denier. People can be naive I've found so I don't know if he understood about Barrett's politics just because Barrett interviewed him.

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Aug 13 2016 00:38
teh wrote:
jesuithitsquad wrote:
It's probably worth noting here that Trump's dog-whistle is more like an air horn at this point with his new line of attack that 'Barack Hussein Obama founded ISIS.'

Its not a new attack line. He's been saying that since he began campaigning last year. Medias just trying to finish him off so he cant inch over the finish line in the fall.

On this particular point hes completely correct (though I'm sure his reasoning, whatever it is, to get to this conclusion is wrong). Al-Qaeda in Iraq was a defeated underground armed struggle group in Western Iraq in 2011. Today it controls territory the size of the UK and has international reach for guerrilla attacks.

Right, but that's not really his point. He's firing up his racist base, the Birthers who think Obama is a Kenyan Muslim who actually, literally founded ISIS. Hugh Hewitt gave him a chance to walk it back by offering your explanation above. Trump rejected the explanation and reiterated 'Obama founded ISIS.' This morning he claimed he was being sarcastic, instead of offering the above explanation.

Also, unless my memory is failing me I don't recall him couching this argument with such overtly racist overtones before now. I think he's said Obama is responsible for allowing ISIS' growth and so on, but you can correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think he's ever said "Barack Hussain Obama founded ISIS."

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