Wot no Greece thread?

Here's a breakdown of Alexis Tsipras's conditions for forming a new government with either of the two 'mainstream' Greek parties (via Ekathimerini

1) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.

2) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.

3) The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system. According to Keep Talking Greece, that would include abolishing the 50-seat bonus for the party which wins the most seats.

4) An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.

5) The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

Quote:
Here's a breakdown of Alexis Tsipras's conditions for forming a new government with either of the two 'mainstream' Greek parties (via Ekathimerini
1) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.

2) The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.

3) The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system. According to Keep Talking Greece, that would include abolishing the 50-seat bonus for the party which wins the most seats.

4) An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.

5) The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

The nature of the state to protect private property and commerce will always castrate any leftist governmental reforms.

That's generally true, however at this point of history in Europe, even a - can I say classic? - social democratic rule is a significant change. I wonder if there's a possibility a "left-europe" at all, or are these attempts just a foreplay for even more right wing policies.

Additionally countries with a strong 'Left' tend to have 'better politics' than countries with a barely existent Left. Compare Italy in the 60s and 70s with the US now. There's greater potential for libertarian communists to make their case/do great stuff in a society where the Left, even institutionally, is a greater part of the public discourse.

Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:
 
Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)

12.30pm New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has there are still hopes a government could be formed to avoid a repeat poll. Addressing the first meeting of his parliamentary party, he said he welcomed [Democratic Left leader] Fotis Kouvelis' proposal for a government of national unity.
[...]
 Samaras envisages two possible government scenarios: 
• A four-party coalition comprising New Democracy, Syriza, Pasok and the Democratic Left. This would all depend on Syriza, as the other parties have more or less said they could work in government together. 
• If Syriza refuses to join the government, then Samaras says his party would tolerate (ie it would neither vote for it or vote against it) a three-way coalition between Syriza, Pasok and the Democratic Left. 

[…]

10.35am There are also reports that the Democratic Left, which has 19 MPs, is split down the middle. Reuters quotes an unnamed Pasok official as saying that the "party is split right down the middle". For that reason, the official said that "there is a very slim chance for a coalition if Kouvelis agrees". That would confirm what Christoforos Vernardakis (@chrisvernard), a pollster with the VPRC company, tweeted last night. He said that Democratic Left MPs were split 50-50 over whether to participate in government, adding that there was "much resistance from members" to the idea.
 
10.20am The Democratic Left is sending out the message this morning that when they speak of an "ecumenical" (ie national unity) government, they envisage Syriza being part of that.
[...]

12.09pm:The Democratic left party in Greece has said it will not back a pro-bailout government.

That almost certainly means that Venizelos's attempts to form a government coalition around agreement on the bailout terms are dashed and that the country will face fresh elections.

12.18pm: More from Greece. Democratic left leader Fotis Kouvelis has spelled out why he can't join a government with the two pro-bailout parties Pasok and New Democracy.

He says any coalition must include election runner-up Alexis Tsipras, whose anti-bailout Radical Left Coalition, or Syriza, won 16.78% of the vote and 52 seats in the 300-member parliament. Tsipras has so far refused to join any pro-bailout so unless he has a change of heart it looks like back to the elections.

"It is clear from its reaction that from the first moment, Syriza wanted elections," Kouvelis told his deputies in a speech Friday. "And without Syriza, a government cannot be formed that is in harmony with the popular will, representing the strength of each political party.

"We have made our position clear. In a government with (only) New Democracy and Pasok, we will not take part."

In Greece, serving police force members vote in specially assigned polling stations (regardless of their area of residence), together with the local population of those stations. Last Sunday in Athens, 5.000 serving police voted in 11 such specially assigned polling stations. In these precise stations, the Nazis of the Golden Dawn received between 19% and 24% of the total vote. The police who voted there serve in all agencies including DIAS, the undercover police force and others. Only a few meters down the road, in neighbouring stations, the percentage of Golden Dawn dropped to approximately 12-14%. Given that there are approximately 550-700 people voting at each of these stations, and also given that 20-30% of them are police, it can be calculate, with considerable certainty, that the percentage of police who voted for Golden Dawn ranges between 45% and 59%.

On May 9, 2012, only days after the election day in which 1 in 2 police voted Nazi, the two conducted a joint operation against the migrant street traders around the Athens School of Economics (ASOEE) and the anarchists who joined in their support. Skirmishes of this kind have been taking place for a while now, with riot police attempting to enforce a dogma of ‘zero tolerance’ and a ‘clean Athens’, in a discourse echoing that of the Golden Dawn (the Nazi party) and yet enforced by ‘socialist’ ministers Chrisochoidis (Public Order) and Loverdos (Health).

On Wednesday’s operation the police openly co-operated with members of the Nazi group Golden Dawn. The two have cooperated many times in the past, whether openly or in disguise. In the videos and photos below members of the GD chant ‘Greece belongs to the Greeks’, sway crow-bars and throw stones to the anarchists who chant ‘the tin-cans have yet to rot’, a reference to the execution (even slaying with tin-cans) of members of the Nazi-collaborating Security Battalions by partisans of EAM-ELAS in September 1944, following the battle between them in the town of Meligalas, SW Peloponnese.

This is less of a blog more of a series of notes to try and enhance understanding of who SYRIZA and its leader Alexis Tsipras actually are, and how they might behave if, as polls suggest, they become the winning party in a second Greek general election. I’ve been troubled by the lack of historical depth in most of the profiles published in newspapers; and of course my own knowledge is limited to English sources...

Soc, I agree with your 'election porn' (especially recent british elections), but not sure that a social democratic party would be any better. First off, I don't believe this is a substantial indicator of the social mood (it seems to fit more with the idea of a 2 party administration, 'oh reds fucked me over, lets go for the blues this time, and visa versa). Secondly, I am not sure what a centre left party in the case of Greece can actually do. The Greek economy is royally fucked, austerity isn't working [sic], but there doesn't seem to be any chance of a Keynesian way out either.

Today's Eleftheros Typos has a new opinion poll, conducted by Rass. The poll is over voter intention and has not been modified to show what the actual share of the vote would be. This is done by removing the abstentions, blank votes and votes for parties that poll below the three-percent threshold.  
 
The poll was conducted on May 10-11 on a nationwide sample of 1,002 people. 
 
Syriza 20.5%
New Democracy 19.4%
Pasok 11.8%
Independent Greeks 7.8%
Democratic Left 6.2%
Communist Party 4.8%
Golden Dawn 3.8%
 
Democratic Alliance 2.4% 
Recreate Greece 2.3%
Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos) 2%
Ecogreens 1.8%
 
Others 3.7%
Spoiled/blank 2.2%
Undecided 11.3%

Collective agreement continuance expires today; hundreds of thousands of private sector workers face 15-40% wage decrease

As mainstream national and international media occupy themselves with the forming of a coalition government, an extremely significant story has received little coverage in Greece: today marks the expiration of the collective agreement continuance (metenergeia ) for 80 out of a total 0f 220 branch collective agreements in the private sector in the country.

Effectively, this means that every single worker previously covered by these agreements is now left facing their bosses alone; it is expected that hundreds of thousands will see their salary reduced to the national minimum wage, while a number of allowances would also be cut. According to the official timeframe, the remaining 140 branch collective agreements will also expire by May 2013.

European leaders and market analysts are starting to forecast the results of a Greek exit from the Eurozone and the projections don't look good.

On Monday, Greece's political leaders failed to form a coalition government, boosting fears of a swift exit from the Eurozone. Now, Bloomberg's Patrick Donahue reports that European Central Bank policymakers gathered in Paris to weigh the possible outcomes of a Greek exit. Meanwhile, global market analysts are feeding the international press their best guesses. Unfortunately for Greece (and the EU) many of the predictions are nightmarish. Here's what analysts say will come of a Greece exit from the Euro:

Interest rates skyrocket. Michael Arghyrou, senior economics lecturer at Cardiff Business School, has bad news for Greeks in need of a loan. "Interest rates will have to double and all mortgages, business loans and other borrowing will become much more expensive," he says. "There will be no credit for Greek banks or the Greek state. That could mean a shortage of basic commodities, like oil or medicine or even foodstuffs." Of course, that's not even the worst of it. "The worst case scenario would be a social and economic breakdown, perhaps even leading to a totalitarian regime," he says.

Bank runs spread to other countries. Bloomberg's Donahue says the threat to other European countries is very real. "A Greek departure from the euro could trigger a default-inducing surge in bond yields, capital flight that might spread to other indebted states and a resultant series of bank runs," he writes. "Although Greece accounts for 2 percent of the euro-area’s economic output, its exit would fragment a system of monetary union designed to be irreversible and might cause investors to raise the threat of withdrawal by other states."

Greek citizens migrate en masse. In a chain of events, The Observer's Julia Kollewe sees Greek skilled labor exiting the country. "The depreciation of the new currency will make imported goods more expensive and drive up inflation," she writes.

Mass unemployment is likely, as is an exodus of young skilled workers. If tens of thousands of Greeks headed to the borders, they might even be closed. Greek soldiers patrolling the roads and ports to keep their fellow citizens in? It is not impossible."

Europe increases its bailout fund. Charles Grant, director of the London think tank Centre for European Reform, says the EU will have to invest more in its precautionary bailout fund. "If Greece moves towards exiting the euro ... the EU would then need to enlarge its bailout funds and prepare other emergency measures."

Unemployment surges. Jan Randolph, head of sovereign risk at IHS Global Insight, says everyone is missing the possibility of a government shutdown following by an unemployment surge. "If credit is withdrawn by the EU and IMF, then Greece becomes a cash economy. It means the government can only pay what it collects," writes Randolph. "The government starts shutting down, 10-15% of state employees don't get paid and unemployment surges from 20% to 30% ... The Greek banking sector would collapse as well."

The creators of Debtocracy, a documentary with two million views broadcasted from Japan to Latin America, analyze the shifting of state assets to private hands.

They travel round the world gathering data on privatization in developed countries and search for clues on the day after Greece’s massive privatization program.

We've a new nationwide poll, this time from the VPRC company and published in Epikaira magazine. It was carried out between May 10-14 on a sample of 804 people. 
 
It shows voter intention and includes don't know, abstentions, etc. The actual share of each party would be higher 
 
Party: (voter intention)
 
Syriza: 20.3% 
New Democracy: 14.2%
Pasok: 10.9% 
Democratic Left: 6.1%
Communist Party: 4.4%
Independent Greeks: 3.7% 
Golden Dawn: 2.2%
Recreate Greece: 1.6%

Other parties 2.3%
Undecided: 17.3%
Don't know/No answer: 6%
Abstention/spoiled/blank: 9.7%

[…]

An opinion poll published yesterday for the Attica prefecture shows that Syriza could take a combined 32 percent in area's five constituencies: Athens A, Athens B, Piraeus A, Piraeus B and Attica. 
 
What does the poll say? Syriza's support has surged an impressive 11.2 points. It's likely that it's attracting support from the Communist Party (down 2.5 points), Independent Greeks supporters (down one point) and other minor parties.
 
The figures below show the share that the parties could expect in poll (excluding abstentions, don't knows, spoiled votes etc). The poll was conducted by the statistics department of the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) for Extra3 TV.

Syriza: 31.9% (20.7)
New Democracy: 13.8% (13.7)
Independent Greeks: 12.8% (11.7)
Pasok: 8.7% (8.7)
Communist Party: 6.8% (9.37)
Golden Dawn: 5.8% (8.7)
Democratic Left: 5.5% (5.9)
Recreate Greece: 3.5% (2.9)
Ecogreens: 3.4% (3.3)
Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos): 3% (3.2)
Drasi: 2.5% (2.6)
Democratic Alliance: 1.2% (2)
Anticapitalist Left (Antarsya): 0.6% (1.25)
Social Pact: 0.4% (1.02)