turkey is marching towards war?

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mikail firtinaci's picture
mikail firtinaci
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May 23 2007 23:48
turkey is marching towards war?

The recent developments are giving the impression that turkish state is marching towards a war against northern ıraq -kurdistan- since "it is a source of terror".

What is recently going on in Turkey;

1- The nationalist-lefty-bureucratic part of the burgeoisie -army- is mobilising the parts of working classes who "benefited" from the already dead wellfare state becoming teachers etc in mostly western parts of the country.Using demagogic anti-imperialist slogans and secularist demands these parts of the working classes are increasingly mobilised against islamic-liberal government

2- liberal intellectuals are threatened and sometimes killed because of treason against the country, because they are not against the rejection of armenian genocide, because of their sympathy towards kurdish national liberation, and also because they are for european union.

3-Leftists are tried to lynched in small cities because of being for pkk -kurdish national lib movement- even if they are not.

4- Bombs are exploding in certain parts of the country and the army bureucrats are continously denouncing barzani and talabani rule in kurdistan as the source of these.

5- Contionus economic attacks are threatening and worsening the conditions of working class. Unemployment is increasing continously and small strikes nearly always ending with defeats are occuring.

6- Despite the assumed U.S. policy against a turkish intervention against northern ıraq-kurdistan turkish burgeoisie is regrouping the traditional parties of the regime for the next election with top bureoucracy backing them

7- Possibly turkish burgeoisie is not very happy because of the recent developments in middle asia, since russia is going to be the controller of the petrolium and natural gas resources of the middle asian countries in its way to e.u.

8- U.S. is getting lonelier in middle east. One possible experssion of that mihgt be the arap petrolium producer countries are tending to leave the dollar currency.

when you add these up, I "feel" that turkish burgeoisie might be potentially preparing for a war against the northern ıraq if only u.s. will accpet that. Imperialist barbarity...

any comments?

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Devrim
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May 24 2007 08:54
mikail firtinaci wrote:
when you add these up, I "feel" that turkish burgeoisie might be potentially preparing for a war against the northern ıraq if only u.s. will accpet that.

I think that the problem lies here, Mikail. The last thing that America wants is a full scale invasion of Iraqi Kurdistan. There is enough chaos in Iraq without the Americans inviting the Turks in to cause some more. Iraqi Kurdistan is probably the most 'peaceful' part of Iraq. Although the US has the PKK on its official list of terrorist groups, it is not prepared to act against them, as Turkey is constantly pressurising them to do because they realise that a war in Kurdistan would send Iraq completely out of control.

This doesn't mean that Turkey won't intervene in Iraq. It has it the past, is probably doing so now, and will certainly do so in the future. The question is how far they can go. The 2003 hood event was an indication that the Americans are only prepared to tolerate so much.

To launch a full scale war agiainst the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan requires either US agreement, which I don't think is forthcoming, or a policy of confrontation with the US. Whilst it is true that there are certainly those among the Turkish nationalists who fantasise about confrontation with America (witness the popularity of 'Kurtlar Vadisi Irak', and 'Metal fırtına'), I tend to think that the Turkish bourgeoisie is not actually insane enough to be planning a confrontation with the US.

That doesn't mean that confrontation can't arise, and that there are no dangers in the region. I think that the way that it could possibly occur is by the Turks pushing the boarders of what the US will allow beyond the limits. The Turkish bourgeoisie is playing a very dangerous game.

Devrim

miasnikov_perm
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May 24 2007 14:26

i think that terming the army under the category of bourgeosie or likewise the state as merely an instrument of bourgeois rule is methodologically false, but this is not the palce and time to argue about this.

likewise even the concept turkish bourgeosie itself is not very useful, if we want a fruitful analysis. how can you a homogeneous unity among the secular istanbul industrialists with the islamic "anatolian tigers" and fettullahist borugeoisie organised under tuskon? this was not useful in understanding the coup of 1997 and will not help us much today.

"6- Despite the assumed U.S. policy against a turkish intervention against northern ıraq-kurdistan turkish burgeoisie is regrouping the traditional parties of the regime for the next election with top bureoucracy backing them"

the moderate-islamist akp will be again the biggest party in the parliament. nationalist mhp has very nationalist members working in the construction sector in the south kurdistan. can the dp of ex-fascist new-democrat mehmet agar do it? he is pretty much a puppet of american imperialism and favors friendly relations with barzani just like the whole chorus ex-fascist neo-democrats e.g ex-dictator kenan evren, the undersecretary of national security agency etc. the class base of dp was very much against their position at the presidential elections and it seems that the only reason behind their betrayal of akp is that someone convinced them that an islamist president will mean military coup.

what we have is just chp and he is a paper tiger in every standard. even a lot of the people voting for chp do not take the leaders of it seriously.

the funny thing is that nobody wants to carry the "anti-imperialist political responsibilities" of turkish nationalism. in the last three years they heightened the nationalist hysteria with every method they have in their hands, but nobody wants to be responsible for entering into kurdistan. in late april the head of the army said that they think a miliary operation would be beneficial and they will do it, if the head of the government orders. yesterday the head of the government said that they will enter kurdistan, if the army wants it. what? do these people no telephone in their homes to talk with each other?

"U.S. is getting lonelier in middle east. One possible experssion of that mihgt be the arap petrolium producer countries are tending to leave the dollar currency."

which country/ies did it? you know, size is important in these issues. generally i think the us imperialism is dying but he is still very strong in the middle east. and the sunni arabs love usa more than they love the shia arabs.

do you think that the turkish ruling classes will do it despite the us? or why can us allow turkey to this? i dont see any benefits.

miasnikov_perm
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May 24 2007 14:32

by the way the army/"deep-state" has never been as inept as today. even the some of the bourgeois journalists (i'm not mentioning the liberal intellectuals) do not believe that the bomber in ankara was a member of pkk or a left group and they openly say it.

also the islamists are working great in the police force. i want an islamist police union in turkey. i can give my critical support to it since it wil be the stronghold of democracy grin

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May 25 2007 07:44
miasnikov_perm wrote:
the moderate-islamist akp will be again the biggest party in the parliament.

Yes, I agree with, Miasnikov

miasnikov_perm wrote:
]what we have is just chp and he is a paper tiger in every standard. even a lot of the people voting for chp do not take the leaders of it seriously.

A bit of Maoist phraseology, but undoubtedly true. A lot of people hate who vote CHP hate Baykal. Even if they manage a coalition with the DSP, it won't change the overall result.

The AKP will win the elections, and the CHP will get over 10% to be represented in Parliment. I think it is also possible, but not probable, that the MHP may squeeze in. The centre right parties will be excluded, and go into crisis.

miasnikov_perm wrote:
do you think that the turkish ruling classes will do it despite the us? or why can us allow turkey to this? i dont see any benefits.

I agree with the anarchist wink As I said above:

Devrim wrote:
To launch a full scale war agiainst the PKK in Iraqi Kurdistan requires either US agreement, which I don't think is forthcoming, or a policy of confrontation with the US. Whilst it is true that there are certainly those among the Turkish nationalists who fantasise about confrontation with America (witness the popularity of 'Kurtlar Vadisi Irak', and 'Metal fırtına'), I tend to think that the Turkish bourgeoisie is not actually insane enough to be planning a confrontation with the US.

That doesn't mean that confrontation can't arise, and that there are no dangers in the region. I think that the way that it could possibly occur is by the Turks pushing the boarders of what the US will allow beyond the limits. The Turkish bourgeoisie is playing a very dangerous game.

Devrim

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Devrim
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May 25 2007 20:36

From another thread:

wangwei wrote:
This article is confusing to me. How will the US maintain Kurd support in Northern Iraq if they move against the PKK?
Quote:
Turkey says Iraq accepts cooperation against PKK
Thu 24 May 2007 17:44:15 BST
ANKARA, May 24 (Reuters) - Iraq said it was ready to cooperate with Ankara against the separatist Kurdistan Workers Party guerrillas who use northern Iraq as a base, Turkey's foreign ministry said in a statement on Thursday.

Last month Turkey gave a diplomatic note asking Baghdad to help force the PKK out of northern Iraq.

"Iraq replied to our note with a note on May 17. In this counter note, the Iraqi government expresses its intention to cooperate over PKK terrorism," the Turkish foreign ministry statement said. http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/CrisesArticle.aspx?rpc=401&storyId=L24437819

Anybody know?

jef costello wrote:
There might be internal differences, or the kurds might be willing to give up a vicious losing battle in Turkey for more of IRaq and a green light to move into Iran.
It makes no sense unless there's some kind of deal going on in the background. Kurds are about the only people that the americans can rely on in Iraq right now.
miasnikov_perm wrote:
actually their reply was quite short. something like one or two sentences.
the 2nd biggest newspaper of the dogan media cartel called it "flippant reply from talabani"
dont take it serious
wangwei wrote:
Okay, so you guys are reading this as the neo-colongy of Iraq placating Turkey? Wouldn't it also be in the best interest of the US ruling class to marginalize and contain the PKK? How integrated into Kurdish society is the PKK?

Devrim

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Devrim
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May 25 2007 20:52

Again, I agree with Misasnikov. This diplomatic notr means nothing.

Wangwei asks:

Wangwei wrote:
Wouldn't it also be in the best interest of the US ruling class to marginalize and contain the PKK?

As I mentioned before although the US may be against the PKK, thry are not prepeared to sanction full scale war.

Devrim

miasnikov_perm
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May 26 2007 06:42
wangwei wrote:
Okay, so you guys are reading this as the neo-colongy of Iraq placating Turkey? Wouldn't it also be in the best interest of the US ruling class to marginalize and contain the PKK? How integrated into Kurdish society is the PKK?

the problem is: how can usa do it? iraqi kurdistan is the most peaceful place in iraq and would you dare to fight against a very experienced 4 000-strong guerilla army? i'm not mentioning their links in the cities. when in 2003 pkk ended the longest ceasefire it made about 20 bombings in a week in the turkish territory. and their forces were suposed to be withdrawn to the south. i cant imagine what they can do in south kurdistan in the case of an operation against them.

beyond 4 or 5 000 guerillas you have also at least a quarter of the kurds and kurds are not only in southeastern turkey. the biggest kurdish population in the world lives now in istanbul. after the army used chemical weapons against the pkk guerillas the riots in diyarbakır did not end until about 15 people are shot dead. the pkk base in turkey is smaller and more liberal than a decade ago. the al-queda base in iraq is probably very very small, but you dont need many people, if you have the right explosives. recently many pkk suicide bombers are caught and the pkk strategy was not targeting civilians excluding a few exceptions. if they see an army of hunderds thousands crossing the border and marching against them, it would be legitimate for them and the kurds to change their tactics (or more indirectly: turkey intervenes, kurds in the north riot&protest, army kills some, kurds riot more, pkk swore an oath of revenge)

on the other hand pkk is quite useful for usa&barzani: it distracts attention from the foundation of a free kurdistan. it makes barzani and turkey hate each other and therefore rely on the usa (actually iraqi kurds are the perfect ally for turkey for cultural and social reasons, if turkey hadnt made the kurdish question so complicated). also iranian wing of pkk - pjak - is destabilizing the eastern kurdistan probably with the aid of usa.

wangwei
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Jun 5 2007 19:43

This is so complicated. Here's a thread recently started.

Quote:
Tension on Turkey border with Kurdistan
sphinx Posts: 59 Joined: 25-12-05 | Send pm

Posted: Submitted by sphinx on Tue, 05/06/2007 - 04:55.
The potential for a further escalation of the inter-imperialist war in the middle east just stepped up a notch.

http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=74897

http://debka.com/headline.php?hid=4264

Quote:
Turkish guns ready to advance on Iraqi Kurdish border

Defense Secretary Robert Gates Sunday cautioned Turkey against sending troops into northern Iraq.

A Turkish incursion unheeding of strains with Washington would have two objectives, according to DEBKAfile’s military sources: To prevent the rise of an independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq and the fall of the oil town of Kirkuk into Kurdish hands. American troops have been hurriedly pulled out of the Kurdish towns of Irbil, Dohuk and Suleimaniyeh, but remain in force in and around Kirkkuk.

Needless to say, with the recent arming of Saudi Arabia with missile defense systems and continual brinkmanship with Iran, the process of Iraqi disintegration seems more unstoppable. Despite the recent movements of left forces on the ground in Iraq and increasing rejection of AQ elements in the provinces, the core of the imperialist conflict, i.e. the competition for, or carving up of, Iraq is accelerating.

Quote

wangwei Posts: 172 Joined: 21-09-06 | Send pm

Posted: Tue, 05/06/2007 - 13:59
I've been thinking long and hard about what's going on in Iraq and the relationship of forces between the US and Turkey. How much of an agression would it be for Turkey to control Northern Iraq in much the same manner as the British control the south?

Who would benefit? Would the Kurds blame the US or would it be a pretext for the US to cow a potential troublesome state?

Could Turky be sabre rattling for a larger piece of the Iraqi pie, or a piece of it for that matter?

I'm so confused about what's happening between Tureky and Iraq right now, and it's so hard to get information here.

Leo
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Jun 14 2007 22:08

It seems to be a possibility - a very dangerous one.

I don't think anything that is not happening now - more bombs, more clashes between the Turkish army and the PKK etc. will happen before the elections next month, but there are already some major parties saying that they will attack Northern Iraq, it seems to be something that would please the US because they are left all alone in Iraq and the FOX TV channel in Turkey is very actively making propaganda for war and last but not least, this war might be the most visible imperialist option for the Turkish bourgeoisie - of course it will only bring more violence, more problems and more barbarism but the bourgeoisie really doesn't calculate that aspect of the issue.

petey
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Jul 7 2007 00:47

this article suggests the moment has arrived
i'd appreciate comment.

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Devrim
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Jul 7 2007 00:59
Inter Press Service wrote:
Cynics, however, say this is just another coup de theatre, which aims at shaking from the shoulders the United States and Iraq, who are clearly opposed to military action against the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) on Iraqi soil.
Inter Press Service wrote:
The meeting on Tuesday between the two Turkish leaders also indicates that Erdogan is in a situation where he has either to comply with the military, supported by and supporting Sezer, or face the consequences of his moderate approach to the handling of the Kurdish problem.

A brief comment: To a certain extent this is part of the Turkish election campaign. The military wants the government out, and is trying to show the government as being soft on terrorism to discredit it with the voters.

That does not mean that the military don't want war, or that there won't be one. The presure though will ease significantly after the election at the end of July, if war hasn't already broken out by then, and if AKP aren't still in office.

Devrim

petey
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Jul 7 2007 01:34

i understand tho' that the AKP are quite widely supported. a few articles in the states have presented this as an elites(= army)-vs-the-people(=AKP) sort of thing. this was eye-opening, as i reflexively supported the 'secularist' demonstrations of a few months ago (being a yank and surrounded by boneheaded fundamentalism) but have read very different takes on that whole business since.

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Jul 7 2007 07:23
Newyawka wrote:
i understand tho' that the AKP are quite widely supported.

Yes, certainly. It is the current government, and has a complete majority (a very rare thing in Turkish politics). In my opinion, there is no doubt that they will be the biggest party after the election. If they fail to get an absolute majority, they could well be forced out of office by a coalition. I can imagine the possibility of the other parties supported by the military to keep out AKP. The Parties in the Parliment will be in order of size AKP (Justice, and Development Party-Islamicist), CHP (Republican People's Party-Kemalist/'social democratic'), DYP(True Path Party-Centre right), and proabably though I am not sure if they will make 10% MHP (Nationalist movement Party-Extreme right/fascist). A coalition of these other three parties would be very similar to the coalition after the 1999 elections. Other coalitions are possible though.

Newyawka wrote:
a few articles in the states have presented this as an elites(= army)-vs-the-people(=AKP) sort of thing.

Yes, I can see their point. It is a bit of a simplification though. The AKP does have huge support among the working class. What you describe as the 'elite' certainly does include the army, and the elites of the old regime. It too has large amounts of support amongst workers. Let's us just go back to the size of the demonstrations again:

Wiki wrote:
The first rally took place in Ankara on 14 April just two days before the start of the presidential election process. The second one took place in Istanbul on 29 April. The third and fourth rallies took place consecutively in Manisa and Çanakkale on 5 May. The fifth rally took place in İzmir on 13 May.
The number of people gathering for the first protest in front of Anıtkabir, the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in Ankara, was cited as ranging from "hundreds of thousands" to 1.5 million people. In the second protest, more than one million people gathered for the protests in Çağlayan square, Istanbul, according to AFP and Reuters. The BBC reported hundreds of thousands of people.[8] Over one, possibly two million people reportedly participated in the fifth rally

I would go with the higher figures. To pull over a million people out on demonstrations three times within a month is quite impressive, and certainly not just the 'elite'. I think that the base of this movement is the urban middle class, and state employees. Obviously this group too includes many workers.

Quote:
as i reflexively supported the 'secularist' demonstrations of a few months ago (being a yank and surrounded by boneheaded fundamentalism) but have read very different takes on that whole business since.

Yes, we said at the time that they were nationalist demonstrations. I don't know if you saw any pictures of them, but the 'sea of Turkish flags' gave it away somewhat.
One of our members said this about it in a speech in Paris**:

EKS wrote:
Turkey has been drawn into an artificial polarization between the secularist bureaucratic opposition and the supporters of the liberal islamist government recently, especially in major cities. The press organs of the secularist bureaucratic opposition, taking themselves too seriously, started claiming that "the regime was in danger" and started organizing mass demonstrations against their political opponents. Although the secularist-nationalist bourgeois media claimed that this was a "grassroots" movement, it was obvious that those who went to demonstrations went there comfortably, as they had the support of a strong faction of the bourgeoisie behind them. Perhaps the most significant aspect of these demonstrations were, however, the left-nationalist slogans raised. What those slogans showed was the misery of the ossified state bourgeoisie caused by the decomposition of the old Kemalist state ideology. The problems of the ideology are not limited to such slogans; tiny fascist sects, founded by retired generals, swear to kill and die in order to save the country, old leftist groups which seem to have turned to the extreme right write slogans in the walls, calling for the invasion of Northern Iraq and middle, and sometimes even high ranking cadres of the army are calling for the "liberation" of Iraqi Turkmens. The army bureaucracy is still one of the strongest powers in Turkey, however not everything is as it used to be; the propaganda against the current government is a proof of this. Never before, has this faction of the bourgeois had to make such a massive propaganda to make it appear as if they gained massive support. Despite the fact that they managed to get hundreds of thousands marching in the streets, this is a sign of desperation. The more desperate the bourgeoisie is, the more vicious it will be.

Full text: http://eks.internationalist-forum.org/en/node/51

Devrim

*to get into parliament a party must receive over 10% of the national vote, a rule which whatever its origin conveniently keeps out Kurdish parties, who in a good election poll around 8%. Interestingly, many of them are standing as independents in these elections, which will, for technical reasons, I can't be bother to explain, eat into the AKP'S majority.
**I don't really like the language used in this speech. I would just like to stress that we don't speak like this all the time. It was a speech given at an internal political meeting.